Autonomous Driving – Autonomous Driving Technology Analysis: Latest Trends & Driverless Future SelfDriving

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SelfDriving

Table of Contents (Autonomous Driving / Driverless Driving)

  1. Technology Rankings and Gaps: Autonomous Driving vs. Automated Driving
  2. Market Outlook: Autonomous Driving Market and Growth Trends
  3. GPU Requirements and Computational Resources: Autonomous Driving Computing
  4. Full Autonomy Timeline and Regulations: Driverless Driving Regulations
  5. Technology Rankings and Gaps: Autonomous Driving vs. Automated Driving Technology Comparison
    (1) Current Industry Technological Strength (Autonomous Driving Technology)
    Leading companies are emerging in the global autonomous driving competition. According to Guidehouse Insights’ 2023 evaluation, companies like Mobileye, Waymo, Baidu, and Cruise are in the top group (leaders), while Tesla is ranked at the bottom (“followers”) of the 16 companies evaluated. This indicates that Tesla’s autonomous driving strategy and execution are significantly behind the industry leaders. In fact, Tesla’s FSD technology is still at Level 2, requiring driver supervision.

(2) Characteristics of Key Companies (Autonomous Driving and Driverless Driving)

  • Waymo (Alphabet/Google)
    Using sensor fusion technology with LiDAR, radar, and cameras, along with accumulated real-world driving data, Waymo had driven 7.1 million miles without a driver by 2023, recording 3 injury accidents. Their performance is 4-7 times safer than human drivers.
  • GM Cruise (Cruise)
    Cruise has commercialized unmanned robo-taxi services in urban areas. However, in 2023, safety regulation issues arose, such as pedestrian accidents.
  • Tesla
    Tesla has adopted a vision-only autonomous driving system based on big data and cameras. However, it is still at Level 2 and lags behind in terms of technological maturity.
  • Baidu (Apollo)
    With government support, Baidu operates unmanned robo-taxi services in several major cities through its Apollo platform, with over 50 million km of cumulative test driving.
  • Nvidia
    A dominant player in the autonomous driving GPU/SoC platform field, many global manufacturers have adopted Nvidia’s Drive Orin.
  • Apple
    Apple is developing an autonomous electric vehicle through its Project Titan. The development status is confidential, and full autonomy is expected after 2026.
  1. Market Outlook: Autonomous Driving Market and Growth Trends
    (1) Market Size Growth (Autonomous Driving Market)
    According to Statista data, the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach approximately $41 billion in 2024 and grow to around $115 billion by 2029. The number of vehicles on the road is expected to increase from about 17,000 in 2022 to about 127,000 by 2030.

(2) Key Revenue Models (Autonomous Mobility)

  • Robo-taxis: Waymo and Cruise are already operating unmanned ride-hailing services, and the market is expected to grow into the hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030.
  • Autonomous Logistics and Delivery: Highway trucks and last-mile delivery robots are expected to contribute to cost reduction and productivity improvement.
  • Personal Autonomous Vehicles: Additional revenue is expected to be generated through premium option sales, such as Tesla FSD and Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot.
  • Commercial Vehicles (Buses, Shuttles): Autonomous shuttle services will gradually expand in public transportation and special environments.
    The autonomous driving market is growing alongside the development of related industries such as maps, V2X communication, OTA updates, insurance, and vehicle-sharing. Nvidia’s CEO forecasts that the autonomous vehicle industry will become the “world’s first trillion-dollar robot industry.”
  1. GPU Requirements and Computational Resource Demands: Autonomous Driving Computing
    (1) Computing Power for Full Autonomy (Autonomous Systems)
    Implementing full autonomy (Level 5) requires computing power of tens to hundreds of TOPS per vehicle. For example, Tesla’s FSD computer HW3 provides 73 TOPS, Nvidia’s Drive Orin provides 254-275 TOPS, and Nvidia’s Drive Thor, which will be released after 2025, targets 2,000 TOPS.

(2) Cloud Computing vs. Edge Computing (Autonomous Driving Computing)
Real-time obstacle detection and emergency braking are processed by edge computing within the vehicle, while AI model training and map updates are performed via cloud computing. Fully autonomous vehicles will require large-scale GPU resources both at the edge and in the cloud.

  1. Full Autonomy Timeline and Regulatory Analysis: Autonomous Driving Regulations and Infrastructure
    (1) Expected Timeline for Full Autonomy (2025-2035)
    Some experts predict that Level 4 (partial autonomy) will be established in specific cities and highways around 2025-2030
  2. It is expected to be possible only after the mid-2020s.
  3. (2) Regulatory Status and Infrastructure (Autonomous Driving Regulations)
  4. United States: Regulations vary by state, and some states like California strengthen regulations after granting robo-taxi permits if safety issues arise.
  5. Europe: Under the UN-ECE R157 regulation, countries like Germany have approved Level 3, and Level 4 is limited to special use cases.
  6. China: The central and local governments are rapidly collaborating to streamline regulations, and fully autonomous robo-taxi services are already operating in some major cities.
  7. South Korea: Since the implementation of the Autonomous Vehicle Act in 2020, demonstration operations and roadmaps have been established; however, conservative regulations such as mandatory driver presence for safety reasons are applied.
    To realize full autonomy, regulations and infrastructure improvements such as liability and insurance systems, safety certification, road infrastructure, and cybersecurity are essential.
  8. Conclusion (Autonomous Driving):
  9. Autonomous driving technology is led by pioneers such as Waymo, Cruise, and Baidu, while Tesla and Apple hold potential in data and software but still face a technology gap. The global autonomous driving market is expected to grow from approximately $41 billion in 2024 to $115 billion by 2029, with related mobility services and industries evolving alongside it. Full autonomy (Level 5) is expected to be realized after the mid-2030s, with GPU demand and regulatory development being key issues.
  1. The Future of Autonomous Driving: How AI and Sensors are Changing the Road – Forbes
  2. Autonomous Driving 2025: The Latest Trends and What’s Next – CNBC
  3. The Road to a Driverless Future: Autonomous Driving Technology and Its Impact – Wired

Tesla FSD Overview: Tesla FSD Introduction

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